Model of formation of bronchal asthma in children with acute and recurrent obstructive bronchitis
Abstract
The paper presents a Markov model, characterizing the development of bronchial asthma in children with acute and recurrent obstructive bronchitis in clinical practice. Methods. Markov modeling was carried out on a time horizon of 18 years (the duration of the transition from birth to adulthood). Sensitivity analysis was conducted to build models to help identify the parameter that has the greatest impact on the results of the study. Results. According to mathematical modeling based on the construction of Markov models we have the formation of asthma during a time horizon of 18 years in patients with acute and recurrent obstructive bronchitis in 8.96% of cases. Deterministic sensitivity analysis of models of constructed form of asthma to change the input data shows an increase in the incidence of acute obstructive bronchitis largely affects the formation of asthma compared with an increase of cases of recurrence of bronchial obstruction. When changing the input data in the range of +50% of the system response is noted as a change in case of formation of asthma in the range (-46,1%;39,7%). Conclusion. Diagnostics and therapy of acute and recurrent obstructive bronchitis requires close attention, as they canhide asthma. During the one-factor and two-factor sensitivity analysis, it was determined that the change in the probability ofdevelopment of the acute obstructive bronchitis has a greater influence on the formation of asthma. Presented Markov modelallows us to investigate the influence of risk factors individually and collectively on the development of asthma in children.The results of the simulation will be the incidence of asthma in addition to the background level of asthma spread amongchildren under the influence of various risk factors.
References
1. Балаболкин И.И. Бронхиальная астма у детей. – М.: Медицина, 2003.
2. Геппе Н.А. Актуальность бронхиальной астмы у детей // Педиатрия. – 2012. - №3. – С. 76-82.
3. Геппе Н.А., Колосова Н.Г. Значение национальных руководств в выборе методов лечения бронхиальной астмы у детей // Лечащий врач. – 2013. - №2. – С. 69-73.
4. Зайцева О.В. Бронхообструктивный синдром у детей с острыми респираторными заболеваниями: современные аспекты терапии // Consilium Medicum. Педиатрия. – 2003. - №2. – С. 18-22.
5. Зайцева О.В., Скирда Т.А., Самсыгина Г.А. Бронхиальная астма у детей, ассоциированная с Chlamydiae pneumoniae // Проблемы инфекционных болезней (клиника, диагностика, лечение): Сборник. – М., 2000. - №2. – С. 130–134.
6. Костюченко М.В. Современные методы рентгенодиагностики хронических неспецифических заболеваний лёгких у детей // Российский вестник перинатологии и педиатрии. – 2002. - №2. – С. 33-38.
7. Куликов А. Ю., Нгуен Т.Т., Тихомирова А.В. Методология моделирования в фармакоэкономике // Фармакоэкономика. Современная фармакоэкономика и фармакоэпидемиология. – 2011. - №4. – C. 8-16.
8. Ласица О.И., Ласица Т.С. Бронхиальная астма в практику семейного врача. – Киев: Атлант UMS, 2001. – 263 с.
9. Мизерницкий Ю.Л. Экологически обусловленные заболевания органов дыхания у детей. // Экологическая педиатрия / Под ред. А.Д. Царегородцева, А.А. Викторова, И.М. Османова; Общественная палата Российской Федерации. – М.: Триада-Х, 2011. – С. 102–119.
10. Национальная программа «Бронхиальная астма у детей. Стратегия лечения и профилактика». – 4-е изд. – М., 2012.
11. Палеев Н.Р., Ильченко В.А. Хронический бронхит. Болезни органов дыхания // Руководство по внутренним болезням / Под ред. Н.Р. Палеева. – М.: Медицина, 2000.
12. Юлиш Е.И., Абатуров А.Е. Что мы лечим: болезнь «бронхиальная астма» или синдром бронхиальной обструкции различной этиологии? // Здоровье ребенка. – 2008. - №1. – С. 99-103.
13. Ball P., Make B. Acute exacerbations of chronic bronchitis // An international comparison. // Chest. – 1998. – V. 113. – P. 199-204.
14. Cunningham A.F., Johnston S.L., Julious S.A. Chronic Chlamydia pneumoniae infection and asthma exacerbations in children // Eur. Respir J. – 1998. – V. 11. – P. 345–349.
15. Esposito S., Bosis S., Faelli N. Role of atypical bacteria and azithromycin therapy for children with recurrent respiratory tract infections // The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal. – 2005. – V. 24 (5). – P. 438.
16. Garau J. Why do we need to eradicate pathogens in respiratory tract infections? // Int J Infect Dis. – 2007. – V.7 Suppl. 1. – P. 5–12.
17. Global strategy for asthma management and prevention: GINA executive summary // Eur. Respir. J. – 2008. – V. 31. – P. 143-178.
18. Hahn D. Chlamydia pneumoniae and asthma. // Abstr. from a special scientific workshop «Chlamydia pneumoniae and respiratory disease» Berlin. – Germany, 1997.
19. Hoizmann D., Ott P.M., Felix H. Diagnostic approach to primary ciliary dyskinesia: a review// Eur J Pediatr. – 2000. – V. 156. – P. 95-98.
20. Menn P., Holle R. Comparing Three Software Tools for Implementing Markov Models for Health Economic Evaluations // Pharmacoeconomics. – 2009. – V. 27. №9. – P. 745-753.
21. National Asthma Education and Prevention Program. Expert Panel Report 3 (EPR-3): Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Management of Asthma-Summary Report 2007 // J. Allergy Clin. Immunol. – 2007. – V. 120. № 5. Suppl. – P. 138–194.
22. Van Asperen P.P., Mellis C.M., Sly P.D. The role of corticosteroids in the management of childhood asthma // Med. J. Aust. – 2002. – V. 176. № 4. – P. 168-173.
REFERENCES
1. Balabolkin I.I. Bronchial asthma in children. – Moscow: Medicine, 2003. (in Russian)
2. Geppe N.A. The relevance of bronchial asthma in children // Pediatriya. – 2012. - №3. – P. 76-82. (in Russian)
3. Geppe N.A., Kolosova N.G. The value of national guidelines in the selection of methods of treatment of bronchial asthma in children // The attending physician. – 2013. - №2. – P. 69-73. (in Russian)
4. Zaitseva O.V. Bronchial obstruction in children with acute respiratory infections: modern aspects of treatment // Consilium Medicum. Pediatriya. – 2003. - №2. – P. 18-22. (in Russian)
5. Zaitseva O.V., Mow T.A., Samsygina G.A. Asthma in children, associated with Chlamydiae pneumoniae // Problems of infectious diseases (clinical features, diagnosis, treatment): Collection. – Moscow, 2000. - №2. – P. 130-134. (in Russian)
6. Kostyuchenko M. Modern methods of X-ray diagnosis of chronic non-specific lung diseases in children // Rossijskij vestnik perinatologii i pediatrii. – 2002. - №2. – P. 33-38. (in Russian)
7. Kulikov A.Yu., Nguyen T.T., Tikhomirov A.V. The methodology of modeling in pharmacoeconomics // Farmakojekonomika. Sovremennaja farmakojekonomika i farmakojepidemiologija. – 2011. - №4. – P. 8-16. (in Russian)
8. Lasitsa O.I., Lasitsa T.S. Bronchial asthma in the practice of the family doctor. – Kiev: Atlanta UMS, 2001. – 263 p. (in Russian)
9. Mizernitsky Y.L. Environmentally caused by respiratory diseases in children. // Environmental Pediatrics / Ed. A.D. Tsaregorodtseva, A.A. Viktorov, I.M. Osmanov; Public Chamber of the Russian Federation. – Moscow: Triad-X, 2011. – P. 102-119. (in Russian)
10. The national program "Bronchial asthma in children. treatment and prevention strategies" – 4th ed. – Moscow, 2012. (in Russian)
11. Paleev N.R., Ilchenko V.A. Chronical bronchitis. Respiratory diseases // Manual of internal medicine / Ed. N.R. Paleev. – Moscow: Medicine, 2000. (in Russian)
12. Yulish E.I., Abaturov A.E. What we treat: the disease "asthma" or bronchial obstruction syndrome of various etiologies? // Zdorov'e rebenka. – 2008. - №1. – P. 99-103. (in Russian)
13. Ball P., Make B. Acute exacerbations of chronic bronchitis // An international comparison. // Chest. – 1998. – V. 113. – P. 199-204.
14. Cunningham A.F., Johnston S.L., Julious S.A. Chronic Chlamydia pneumoniae infection and asthma exacerbations in children // Eur. Respir J. – 1998. – V. 11. – P. 345–349.
15. Esposito S., Bosis S., Faelli N. Role of atypical bacteria and azithromycin therapy for children with recurrent respiratory tract infections // The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal. – 2005. – V. 24 (5). – P. 438.
16. Garau J. Why do we need to eradicate pathogens in respiratory tract infections? // Int J Infect Dis. – 2007. – V.7 Suppl. 1. – P. 5–12.
17. Global strategy for asthma management and prevention: GINA executive summary // Eur. Respir. J. – 2008. – V. 31. – P. 143-178.
18. Hahn D. Chlamydia pneumoniae and asthma. // Abstr. from a special scientific workshop «Chlamydia pneumoniae and respiratory disease» Berlin. – Germany, 1997.
19. Hoizmann D., Ott P.M., Felix H. Diagnostic approach to primary ciliary dyskinesia: a review// Eur J Pediatr. – 2000. – V. 156. – P. 95-98.
20. Menn P., Holle R. Comparing Three Software Tools for Implementing Markov Models for Health Economic Evaluations // Pharmacoeconomics. – 2009. – V. 27. №9. – P. 745-753.
21. National Asthma Education and Prevention Program. Expert Panel Report 3 (EPR-3): Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Management of Asthma-Summary Report 2007 // J. Allergy Clin. Immunol. – 2007. – V. 120. № 5. Suppl. – P. 138–194.
22. Van Asperen P.P., Mellis C.M., Sly P.D. The role of corticosteroids in the management of childhood asthma // Med. J. Aust. – 2002. – V. 176. № 4. – P. 168-173.
2. Геппе Н.А. Актуальность бронхиальной астмы у детей // Педиатрия. – 2012. - №3. – С. 76-82.
3. Геппе Н.А., Колосова Н.Г. Значение национальных руководств в выборе методов лечения бронхиальной астмы у детей // Лечащий врач. – 2013. - №2. – С. 69-73.
4. Зайцева О.В. Бронхообструктивный синдром у детей с острыми респираторными заболеваниями: современные аспекты терапии // Consilium Medicum. Педиатрия. – 2003. - №2. – С. 18-22.
5. Зайцева О.В., Скирда Т.А., Самсыгина Г.А. Бронхиальная астма у детей, ассоциированная с Chlamydiae pneumoniae // Проблемы инфекционных болезней (клиника, диагностика, лечение): Сборник. – М., 2000. - №2. – С. 130–134.
6. Костюченко М.В. Современные методы рентгенодиагностики хронических неспецифических заболеваний лёгких у детей // Российский вестник перинатологии и педиатрии. – 2002. - №2. – С. 33-38.
7. Куликов А. Ю., Нгуен Т.Т., Тихомирова А.В. Методология моделирования в фармакоэкономике // Фармакоэкономика. Современная фармакоэкономика и фармакоэпидемиология. – 2011. - №4. – C. 8-16.
8. Ласица О.И., Ласица Т.С. Бронхиальная астма в практику семейного врача. – Киев: Атлант UMS, 2001. – 263 с.
9. Мизерницкий Ю.Л. Экологически обусловленные заболевания органов дыхания у детей. // Экологическая педиатрия / Под ред. А.Д. Царегородцева, А.А. Викторова, И.М. Османова; Общественная палата Российской Федерации. – М.: Триада-Х, 2011. – С. 102–119.
10. Национальная программа «Бронхиальная астма у детей. Стратегия лечения и профилактика». – 4-е изд. – М., 2012.
11. Палеев Н.Р., Ильченко В.А. Хронический бронхит. Болезни органов дыхания // Руководство по внутренним болезням / Под ред. Н.Р. Палеева. – М.: Медицина, 2000.
12. Юлиш Е.И., Абатуров А.Е. Что мы лечим: болезнь «бронхиальная астма» или синдром бронхиальной обструкции различной этиологии? // Здоровье ребенка. – 2008. - №1. – С. 99-103.
13. Ball P., Make B. Acute exacerbations of chronic bronchitis // An international comparison. // Chest. – 1998. – V. 113. – P. 199-204.
14. Cunningham A.F., Johnston S.L., Julious S.A. Chronic Chlamydia pneumoniae infection and asthma exacerbations in children // Eur. Respir J. – 1998. – V. 11. – P. 345–349.
15. Esposito S., Bosis S., Faelli N. Role of atypical bacteria and azithromycin therapy for children with recurrent respiratory tract infections // The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal. – 2005. – V. 24 (5). – P. 438.
16. Garau J. Why do we need to eradicate pathogens in respiratory tract infections? // Int J Infect Dis. – 2007. – V.7 Suppl. 1. – P. 5–12.
17. Global strategy for asthma management and prevention: GINA executive summary // Eur. Respir. J. – 2008. – V. 31. – P. 143-178.
18. Hahn D. Chlamydia pneumoniae and asthma. // Abstr. from a special scientific workshop «Chlamydia pneumoniae and respiratory disease» Berlin. – Germany, 1997.
19. Hoizmann D., Ott P.M., Felix H. Diagnostic approach to primary ciliary dyskinesia: a review// Eur J Pediatr. – 2000. – V. 156. – P. 95-98.
20. Menn P., Holle R. Comparing Three Software Tools for Implementing Markov Models for Health Economic Evaluations // Pharmacoeconomics. – 2009. – V. 27. №9. – P. 745-753.
21. National Asthma Education and Prevention Program. Expert Panel Report 3 (EPR-3): Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Management of Asthma-Summary Report 2007 // J. Allergy Clin. Immunol. – 2007. – V. 120. № 5. Suppl. – P. 138–194.
22. Van Asperen P.P., Mellis C.M., Sly P.D. The role of corticosteroids in the management of childhood asthma // Med. J. Aust. – 2002. – V. 176. № 4. – P. 168-173.
REFERENCES
1. Balabolkin I.I. Bronchial asthma in children. – Moscow: Medicine, 2003. (in Russian)
2. Geppe N.A. The relevance of bronchial asthma in children // Pediatriya. – 2012. - №3. – P. 76-82. (in Russian)
3. Geppe N.A., Kolosova N.G. The value of national guidelines in the selection of methods of treatment of bronchial asthma in children // The attending physician. – 2013. - №2. – P. 69-73. (in Russian)
4. Zaitseva O.V. Bronchial obstruction in children with acute respiratory infections: modern aspects of treatment // Consilium Medicum. Pediatriya. – 2003. - №2. – P. 18-22. (in Russian)
5. Zaitseva O.V., Mow T.A., Samsygina G.A. Asthma in children, associated with Chlamydiae pneumoniae // Problems of infectious diseases (clinical features, diagnosis, treatment): Collection. – Moscow, 2000. - №2. – P. 130-134. (in Russian)
6. Kostyuchenko M. Modern methods of X-ray diagnosis of chronic non-specific lung diseases in children // Rossijskij vestnik perinatologii i pediatrii. – 2002. - №2. – P. 33-38. (in Russian)
7. Kulikov A.Yu., Nguyen T.T., Tikhomirov A.V. The methodology of modeling in pharmacoeconomics // Farmakojekonomika. Sovremennaja farmakojekonomika i farmakojepidemiologija. – 2011. - №4. – P. 8-16. (in Russian)
8. Lasitsa O.I., Lasitsa T.S. Bronchial asthma in the practice of the family doctor. – Kiev: Atlanta UMS, 2001. – 263 p. (in Russian)
9. Mizernitsky Y.L. Environmentally caused by respiratory diseases in children. // Environmental Pediatrics / Ed. A.D. Tsaregorodtseva, A.A. Viktorov, I.M. Osmanov; Public Chamber of the Russian Federation. – Moscow: Triad-X, 2011. – P. 102-119. (in Russian)
10. The national program "Bronchial asthma in children. treatment and prevention strategies" – 4th ed. – Moscow, 2012. (in Russian)
11. Paleev N.R., Ilchenko V.A. Chronical bronchitis. Respiratory diseases // Manual of internal medicine / Ed. N.R. Paleev. – Moscow: Medicine, 2000. (in Russian)
12. Yulish E.I., Abaturov A.E. What we treat: the disease "asthma" or bronchial obstruction syndrome of various etiologies? // Zdorov'e rebenka. – 2008. - №1. – P. 99-103. (in Russian)
13. Ball P., Make B. Acute exacerbations of chronic bronchitis // An international comparison. // Chest. – 1998. – V. 113. – P. 199-204.
14. Cunningham A.F., Johnston S.L., Julious S.A. Chronic Chlamydia pneumoniae infection and asthma exacerbations in children // Eur. Respir J. – 1998. – V. 11. – P. 345–349.
15. Esposito S., Bosis S., Faelli N. Role of atypical bacteria and azithromycin therapy for children with recurrent respiratory tract infections // The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal. – 2005. – V. 24 (5). – P. 438.
16. Garau J. Why do we need to eradicate pathogens in respiratory tract infections? // Int J Infect Dis. – 2007. – V.7 Suppl. 1. – P. 5–12.
17. Global strategy for asthma management and prevention: GINA executive summary // Eur. Respir. J. – 2008. – V. 31. – P. 143-178.
18. Hahn D. Chlamydia pneumoniae and asthma. // Abstr. from a special scientific workshop «Chlamydia pneumoniae and respiratory disease» Berlin. – Germany, 1997.
19. Hoizmann D., Ott P.M., Felix H. Diagnostic approach to primary ciliary dyskinesia: a review// Eur J Pediatr. – 2000. – V. 156. – P. 95-98.
20. Menn P., Holle R. Comparing Three Software Tools for Implementing Markov Models for Health Economic Evaluations // Pharmacoeconomics. – 2009. – V. 27. №9. – P. 745-753.
21. National Asthma Education and Prevention Program. Expert Panel Report 3 (EPR-3): Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Management of Asthma-Summary Report 2007 // J. Allergy Clin. Immunol. – 2007. – V. 120. № 5. Suppl. – P. 138–194.
22. Van Asperen P.P., Mellis C.M., Sly P.D. The role of corticosteroids in the management of childhood asthma // Med. J. Aust. – 2002. – V. 176. № 4. – P. 168-173.
Published
2018-04-03
How to Cite
ЖУКОВА, Ольга Вячеславовна; КОНОНОВА, Светлана Владимировна; КОНЫШКИНА, Татьяна Михайловна.
Model of formation of bronchal asthma in children with acute and recurrent obstructive bronchitis.
Sibirskij Medicinskij Zurnal (Irkutsk) = Siberian Medical Journal (Irkutsk) 16+, [S.l.], v. 145, n. 6, p. 22-27, apr. 2018.
ISSN 1815-7572. Available at: <http://smj.ismu.baikal.ru/index.php/osn/article/view/109>. Date accessed: 28 jan. 2026.
Issue
Section
Original research
